Expected goals (xG) in football predictions: what it is and why it matters

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of scoring chances, not just their outcomes. A shot from the six-yard box scores ~76% of the time historically; a 30-yard effort scores ~2% of the time. Those probabilities are the shot's xG values. Summing them across a match gives a team's expected goals total — a better predictor of future results than actual goals scored.

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