Variance in sports betting is the statistical spread of outcomes around expected value. Even with a genuine 8% edge on every bet, you will experience losing runs of 5, 8, even 12 consecutive bets — purely by chance. Understanding variance is essential for avoiding two critical mistakes: abandoning a winning strategy during a bad run, and mistaking a lucky run for genuine edge. AI prediction systems generate consistent EV over large samples, but variance means any individual 20–50 bet window can look dramatically different from long-run expectation.
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