A correct score prediction today sure wins query asks for certainty that football probability models cannot provide. The useful answer is a transparent scoreline distribution: estimate the home and away goal rates, calculate the probability of 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 and other outcomes, then sum those cells to obtain home-win, draw and away-win probabilities. The highest cell is a modal estimate, not a promise. A 1-0 result can be the most likely exact score while still being more likely not to occur than to occur. This distinction matters even when a model is well specified, because one
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