Predictive betting models: a framework comparison for football

Predictive betting models are the mathematical frameworks that convert historical sports data into forward-looking probability estimates. The choice of model — Poisson, Elo, logistic regression, gradient boosting, or neural network — determines what patterns the system can discover, what data it requires to generalise reliably, and where it will fail. No single model outperforms all others across all conditions; the optimal approach uses different model types for different data quality environments and combines their outputs in an ensemble.

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