Polymarket vs Kalshi: Super Bowl 2027 Champion Prices

A dated comparison of the 2027 champion markets

Kalshi’s official “2027 NFL Champion” page displayed the San Francisco 49ers at 14%, Buffalo Bills at 13%, and Chicago Bears at 12% when captured November 7, 2026. It showed $226,826,138 in total volume. Polymarket’s “Pro Football: 2027 Champion” page showed San Francisco and Buffalo at 14% each and reported $71.8 million in total volume. These figures describe those pages at that capture, not a live quote and not a consensus across all sportsbooks or prediction markets.

The top two prices are close, but the platforms do not show exactly the same ordering: Kalshi’s capture placed San Francisco ahead of Buffalo by one point, while Polymarket showed them tied at 14%. That is a snapshot difference, not evidence that one platform is correct. The price can move with new information and trading. A reader checking the pages later may see a different order, a different percentage, or a revised volume figure.

What a market price means—and what it does not

Kalshi displayed the 49ers at 14 cents for a Yes contract, alongside a 14% chance label. Polymarket’s page explained that a price of 14 cents represents an approximate 14% implied probability for that outcome before considering platform fees, spread, or transaction costs. These are market prices generated by trading activity. They are not an independent statistical forecast, a verified probability of the final result, or a guarantee that a contract can be bought at the displayed price.

A displayed probability may be based on the last trade, bid/ask midpoint, or another platform method. The market page and rules are the authority for its pricing and settlement mechanics. A price of 14¢ can also imply a different effective cost to buy if the current ask is higher, if the market has a wide spread, or if fees apply. Do not convert a displayed percentage into a sportsbook line without checking how the contract is priced and what the fee structure is.

Volume is activity, not guaranteed liquidity

The Kalshi capture showed $226.8 million in displayed volume, and Polymarket reported $71.8 million in total volume. Those figures are not directly comparable without matching the measurement window, what contracts are included, currency and settlement units, and the platform’s definition of volume. One page may count lifetime trading while another view may show recent activity. A large cumulative number does not tell a user how much is available at the current best price or how much a large order could move the market.

Liquidity is about executable size and price impact, not just the volume headline. Check the order book or quoted bid and ask and the market’s recent trades if you need to understand how much can be transacted at a displayed price. A high volume figure may reflect many small trades over a long period. The source pages provide their own market context, but this article does not claim that either platform has deeper liquidity based only on the totals shown.

Confirm the event question and settlement rules

The Kalshi page labels the event “2027 NFL Champion,” while Polymarket calls it “Pro Football: 2027 Champion.” Both refer to a championship outcome for the 2027 season in the captured descriptions, but a matching title alone does not prove identical contract terms. Each market has its own rules, resolution source, deadline, treatment of a postponed game, and platform procedures. Read the rules before comparing or taking any action. If the question or resolution condition differs, the prices are not a clean comparison.

Polymarket’s captured page said the market was scheduled to resolve on or around March 31, 2027, subject to its rules. Kalshi’s page displayed a game date and outcome board in its own interface. A market’s expected resolution date can shift if the official result is delayed or the platform’s rules require confirmation. Do not assume the event settles immediately at the final whistle. The source’s exact market rules determine the outcome and payout.

How to compare Kalshi and Polymarket prices

Use the same team, event, timestamp, and price basis. For example, compare the 49ers’ Kalshi contract with the 49ers’ Polymarket contract at the same moment, and record whether the figure is the last trade, midpoint, or ask price. Then compare the exact resolution rule and any fee. A one-point difference in displayed probability can be smaller than the spread or fees, so do not call it a meaningful edge without checking executable prices and the market’s terms.

Also compare the same group of outcomes. A platform may display only leading teams on its landing section, while the full event lists all 32. The capture in this article has Kalshi prices for the 49ers, Bills, and Bears; the Polymarket snapshot clearly identifies the first two leaders and reports total volume. It does not provide a directly matched Bears quote in the evidence summarized here. We therefore do not invent a Polymarket Bears price or claim a full-board comparison.

A prediction market is not the same as sportsbook futures

Sportsbook futures are quoted in formats such as American odds and include the bookmaker’s margin. Prediction-market contracts are generally represented as yes/no shares or cents and may have exchange fees and spread. The same approximate implied probability can appear in both formats, but the cost, payout, order execution, and settlement terms differ. A sportsbook line of +580 is not automatically equivalent to a 14¢ contract; the conversion is only a rough mathematical comparison before accounting for margin and fees.

This comparison page is distinct from the Super Bowl LXI DraftKings snapshot, which ESPN reported at +580 for San Francisco, +600 for Buffalo, and +950 for Chicago in a November 3 article. The operator, time, and odds format differ. If a user sees a different favorite on a sportsbook page, that does not contradict the Kalshi or Polymarket capture; it may reflect a different time, market, price method, or provider.

For ESPN’s reported DraftKings futures snapshot, see dated sportsbook futures.

For the official headliner announcement and odds status, see confirmed Super Bowl LXI halftime details.

Update limits and a responsible reading

The values on this page were captured November 7, 2026 and do not refresh automatically. A later result, injury, trade, or market action can change prices quickly. Before repeating a number, reopen the official market page and record the current access time. If you cannot confirm that the event remains open, label the quote historical or omit it. Do not rely on a search snippet or cached page for a market that can change continuously.

Prediction-market prices are uncertain and may be restricted or unavailable in some locations. This article reports public market pages and explains their labels; it does not recommend buying or selling contracts. A displayed implied probability is not a certainty, an independent forecast, or evidence of profitability. Consider the market rules, transaction costs, potential loss, and your own local requirements before making any decision.

Market snapshot captured November 7, 2026

Platform pages are separate markets. Volume labels are transcribed as displayed and are not normalized for definition or period.

Five checks before comparing a prediction market

1. Confirm the same season, championship outcome, team, and event question on both platforms.
2. Record each page’s access time and whether price means last trade, midpoint, or buy-side offer.
3. Read both resolution rules and note the expected settlement date.
4. Compare fees, spread, and executable size; do not treat total volume as current liquidity.
5. Label any quoted percentages and volume as a dated snapshot, not a universal forecast.

Sources and evidence boundary

Market pages captured November 7, 2026. Prices and displayed volume are volatile; the two platforms may use different contracts, price methods, and volume definitions.

• Kalshi official Super Bowl 2027 market — Captured November 7, 2026. Displayed 49ers 14%, Bills 13%, Bears 12%, and $226,826,138 total volume.
• Polymarket official Pro Football: 2027 Champion market — Captured November 7, 2026. The page displayed 49ers and Bills at 14% and reported $71.8 million in total volume.
• ESPN report on Super Bowl LXI sportsbook futures — Separate DraftKings sportsbook snapshot published November 3; not directly equivalent to prediction-market prices.

Uncertainty and responsible use

The November 7 snapshot showed close but not identical leading prices on Kalshi and Polymarket. Recheck both official market pages for current quotes, rules, and volume definitions.

Market prices are uncertain and do not guarantee outcomes. This comparison is informational, not a recommendation to trade.