Polymarket arbitrage sports betting — decentralised prediction markets, Betfair cross-arb, and the Kalshi edge

Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market built on the Polygon blockchain where users trade YES/NO shares on the probability of real-world events — including football matches, political elections, and economic indicators. Unlike traditional bookmakers, Polymarket uses a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) model where share prices are determined by peer-to-peer trading rather than a bookmaker setting a fixed line. This creates consistent pricing inefficiencies against traditional sportsbooks (Betfair, Pinnacle) and regulated US prediction markets (Kalshi), particularly on football and Premier

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