Dixon-Coles model football: the Poisson upgrade for correct score prediction

The Dixon-Coles model is a 1997 statistical correction to standard Poisson that fixes a systematic problem: Poisson under-predicts 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 results. The correction — a rho parameter applied to low-scoring scorelines — produces materially better calibration for draw prediction and correct score markets. It's the industry standard for football prediction, and it's at the core of SmartMatchPick.

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