Poisson distribution is the standard statistical tool for correct score prediction in football. Given each team's expected goals rate for a specific match, Poisson calculates the probability of each team scoring exactly 0, 1, 2, 3 (or more) goals. Multiply the two individual probabilities and you get the probability of that exact scoreline. The result is a complete grid of every possible score — the correct score matrix — that AI models use to price every football market.
Loading SmartMatchPick...