HT/FT best prediction site: two-stage Poisson and second-half game state

Half-time/full-time (HT/FT) prediction is a two-stage Poisson problem requiring independent probability calculations for the first-half and second-half outcome, then the joint probability of both conditions being satisfied simultaneously. The best HT/FT prediction site models the specific asymmetry between halves — teams behave differently in the second half based on the first-half game state — rather than treating the match as a single event split in two. HT/FT markets carry 15–25% bookmaker margins, creating significant AI EV opportunities for models that correctly model the conditional seco

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