Predicting BTTS using odds works in two directions: backwards (converting bookmaker odds to implied probability to understand the market's assessment) and forwards (using a Poisson model to generate independent BTTS probability and comparing it to the odds). The difference between these two numbers is the expected value. This guide covers both methods in full — including the de-vigging formula, the Poisson BTTS calculation, and the xG input that drives it.
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