Getting a correct score prediction right is not about guessing — it is about identifying the subset of matches where the Poisson probability distribution is concentrated enough to generate positive expected value on a specific scoreline. The correct score market is the highest-variance bet in football. The methodology for finding edge in it requires computing a full 6×6 scoreline matrix, applying Dixon-Coles low-score correction, and only betting when the model's probability materially exceeds the bookmaker's implied price.
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