How to predict a correct score in football starts with a Poisson distribution parameterised by expected goals. The formula P(X = k) = λ^k × e^(−λ) / k! converts each team's expected goal rate (λ) into the probability of scoring exactly k goals. Multiplying the home and away goal probabilities across every k combination fills a scoreline matrix where every cell is the joint probability of a specific final score. This guide walks through the full derivation: how to calculate attack and defence strength from xG data, how to compute the λ values, how to apply the Dixon-Coles correction, and how to
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