Long-run profitability in football betting is not primarily a prediction problem — it is a bankroll architecture problem. Most bettors who receive genuinely skilled predictions still lose money because their stake-sizing methodology amplifies variance during losing runs, compounds errors during hot streaks, and produces ruin events that no picking accuracy can recover. The Kelly Criterion, correctly applied to calibrated AI probability outputs, is the mathematical framework that converts prediction edge into sustainable long-run bankroll growth.
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