How to analyse a football match — the professional quantitative workflow from raw data to AI predictions

Analysing a football match quantitatively — from raw optical tracking through final probability output — requires a structured workflow that combines tactical metrics (PPDA, field tilt, progressive passes, line height) with statistical models (xG, Poisson regression, XGBoost classifiers) and qualitative overrides (team news, referee profiles, atmospheric conditions). Most analysts start at the wrong end: beginning with result or form table data that is already corrupted by scoreline variance. Professional football analytics begins with expected goals and works backward to the underlying tactic

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