Head to head records in football prediction: when H2H actually matters

Head-to-head (H2H) records — the historical results between two specific teams — are widely used in casual football prediction but often misapplied. Research shows that H2H records, beyond a short recent window, add little predictive value over and above each team's current form and xG profiles. The exception: genuine tactical mismatches that persist across years because of fundamental playing style incompatibility. SmartMatchPick incorporates H2H as a secondary modifier rather than a primary input.

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