Which odds are good for BTTS? League statistics, odds thresholds, and bookmaker margin analytics

Identifying which odds are good for BTTS requires stripping the bookmaker's overround from the market price to reveal the implied true probability, then comparing it to the Bivariate Poisson model's probability estimate. In the BTTS Yes/No market, bookmakers typically apply a combined overround of 10–16% — meaning the sum of GG Yes and GG No implied probabilities adds to 110–116%, not 100%. The optimal BTTS odds window — where the model's edge is most consistently achievable — sits between 1.70 and 2.05 for BTTS Yes, corresponding to bookmaker-implied probabilities of 48.8% to 58.8% after marg

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