The best AI correct score prediction system is not the one with the highest published strike rate — it is the one with the most accurate probability calibration, the strictest publication criteria, and the most transparent methodology. A correct score model that publishes 20 picks per day and claims 30% accuracy is almost certainly cherry-picking. A model that publishes 2–3 picks per week from highly concentrated Poisson distributions, at odds of 7.00–12.00, with full EV documentation, is doing the mathematics correctly.
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